Q4 2025 Procurement Forecast: What Small Businesses Should Expect

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, procurement activity is gearing up for what is traditionally one of the busiest periods of the year. For business owners, Q4 can be both an opportunity and a challenge. Budgets are closing out, agencies are moving quickly to obligate remaining funds, and competition for contracts is at its peak. Understanding the forecast for contract opportunities in Q4 2025 will help you position your business for success.

Q4 Procurement

Government agencies and many large organizations follow strict fiscal calendars. By the end of the year, unused funds risk being lost, so agencies often issue a surge of solicitations and awards in Q4. For small businesses, this translates to more contract opportunities but also tighter timelines to respond. (Aventi's Proposal Toolkit can help you respond quickly)

Key Drivers of Q4 2025 Opportunities

1. End-of-Year Budget Spending Expect a wave of RFPs and contract awards as agencies work to obligate remaining funds. Historically, 20–25% of annual federal contract dollars are awarded in Q4 alone.

2. Technology Modernization

Demand for IT services, cybersecurity, cloud solutions, and AI-driven tools will remain strong. Agencies are prioritizing digital transformation and modernization, creating opportunities for firms with tech capabilities. (Create your own idea for a tech solution here)

3. Infrastructure and Public Works Investments in transportation, green energy, and large-scale infrastructure continue to drive procurement. Construction, engineering, and environmental services are projected to see an uptick in solicitations.

4. Small Business and Set-Asides A significant share of contracts (25–35% by forecast) will be directed toward small and disadvantaged businesses. For certified firms (MBE, WBE, DBE, etc.), Q4 presents a chance to compete for opportunities tailored to their strengths. Make sure your certifications are active. If you're not already, consider getting certified.

5. Bundled and Consolidated Contracts

At the same time, agencies are bundling larger contracts under prime vehicles. Smaller firms should prepare to pursue subcontracting opportunities or strategic partnerships with primes.

Sector Highlights

• Technology & Cybersecurity: Up to 30% of Q4 solicitations are expected to involve IT modernization, digital tools, or security compliance.

• Construction & Engineering: Agencies are pushing infrastructure funds out the door before deadlines.

• Professional Services: Marketing, training, and organizational change management contracts are rising, as agencies need help with communications and stakeholder engagement.

  
  

Risks to Watch

While opportunities will be plentiful, businesses should keep an eye on:

• Budget cuts or reallocation that may scale back certain contracts.

• New compliance requirements, particularly around cybersecurity and ESG.

• Capacity bottlenecks within agencies that can delay solicitations.

• Heightened competition as more firms pursue limited opportunities.

  
  

Positioning Your Business for Q4 2025 Success

Here are three practical steps to position your business for contract success:

1. Stay Alert and Move Quickly Many solicitations in Q4 have short turnaround times. Use bid monitoring tools and set alerts so you don’t miss deadlines. Aventi offers monthly Bid Search Services to keep you informed of available contract opportunities relevant to your business.
   

2. Leverage Certifications If you’re certified as a small or disadvantaged business, highlight that advantage in your bids. Agencies are looking to meet set-aside targets before year-end. If you're not already certified, consider applying for certifications if you qualify.
   

3. Build Partnerships If a contract looks too large to pursue alone, seek prime-sub partnerships. Bundled contracts favor teaming, and primes are often searching for capable partners to meet participation requirements.

The Bottom Line

Q4 2025 is shaping up to be a busy and opportunity-rich quarter for government and corporate contracting. From technology and infrastructure to professional services, agencies are eager to obligate funds before the year closes. Small businesses that are proactive, well-prepared, and open to collaboration can seize significant growth opportunities during this critical window.

For help preparing your business for contract success, visit www.aventienterprises.com.